Accurate Prediction Of Second Wave Of Corona Peak Difficult
Accurate prediction of the second wave of Corona peak difficult, Indian scientists claim. What is not yet clear about what is the second wave of Corona in India, what is its nature.
A group of scientists from India has said that no accurate prediction can be made about the nature of the second wave of coronavirus that came in India.
A group of scientists working on mathematical models to predict the growth of coronavirus cases has said that they cannot predict the exact trajectory of a devastating second wave in the country because the dynamics of the virus over time and its infectivity has changed significantly.
A statement issued by the Department of Science and Technology and signed by Professor Manindra Agarwal of IIT Kanpur, Madhuri Kanitkar.
Deputy Chief of Integrated Defense Staff, and Professor M. Vidyasagar of IIT Hyderabad, said that the mathematical model showed the second wave of coronavirus and the third in April.
It had predicted its peak in the week, during which around one lakh cases were being reported every day.
He has also dismissed reports that scientists working on the formula model warned about the second wave in March, but ignored his warning.
Last year, the government formed a group of scientists, mathematicians, and experts to forecast the upsurge of cases.
He said that the nature of the virus is changing very rapidly and in such a scenario any prediction should be read continuously, sometimes daily.
He said that we are working closely with the government and our inputs have always been received positively.
While we could not first estimate the exact nature of the second wave, we continue our efforts to better estimate its future estimate.
He said that the government had sought its input on April 2 when he predicted that a peak would come around the third week of April.
This was followed by 2,00,739 cases in India on April 15, while on April 22 3,14,835 cases were registered. Breaking all its previous records, the country broke the daily high on May 1 with over four lakh new infections.
Apparently in this instance, the prediction of the model was incorrect. In such a situation, one can say that no accurate prediction can be made about the second wave.
